Various books and systems purport to contain workable "non-counting" systems for blackjack. Most of these systems are based on some form of betting progression—and there are hundreds of variations on both the martingale and other types of progressions and regressions.

Some systems, however, take a "situational betting" approach. These types of systems are a radical departure from normal card counting systems, and also from the standard "betting progression" systems. The system sellers who propose these types of systems claim that computer simulations show that without counting cards, per se, certain playing situations will indicate that the house advantage will be higher or lower on the next hand to be dealt.

In fact, there is a truth to this claim. As far back as 1978, Dr. John Gwynn and Professor Armand Serf (both of California State University in Sacramento) published a paper that first described valid situational betting techniques—and Gwynn and Seri based their findings on extensive computer simulations.

What Gwynn and Seri determined beyond any doubt were three facts:
1. If a player loses a hand, he will be more likely to win the next one— i.e., losing one hand is a positive indicator that the player has a better expectation on the next.
2. If a player wins a hand, he will be more likely to lose the next one i.e., winning one hand is an indicator that the player's expectation on the next has dropped.
3. If a player pushes a hand with the dealer, it is an even stronger indicator that the player's expectation on the next hand has dropped.

For a number of years following the Gwynn/Seri situational discoveries, blackjack betting systems began appearing that advanced situational betting theory beyond the win/loss/push indicators. Other proven situational advantage indicators are:
4. Following a non-ace pair-split, the player's expectation rises.
5. Following an ace split, the player's expectation drops.
6. Following a hard double down, the player's expectation rises.
7. Following any hand (player or dealer) that requires 4 or more cards, the player's expectation rises.
8. Following any hand in which both the player and the dealer use 4 or more cards, the player's expectation rises more dramatically.
9. Following any blackjack (player or dealer), the player's expectation drops.
10. Following any hand in which neither the player nor the dealer has taken any hits, the player's expectation drops.

All of this can be proven by computer simulation. A player who always raises his bet after positive indicators, and lowers it after negative indicators, will have an expectation greater than a player who puts the same amount of money into action flat betting. (We're assuming that both players are playing basic strategy.)

Now, wouldn't it be much easier than employing a card counting system for a player to just memorize the 5 positive indicators and the 5 negative indicators and to raise and lower his bets accordingly?
Absolutely!

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