If the crap table had an even money payout bet on the layout that three onsecutive pass or don't pass results would occur, and you could take either side of this wager—call it 'triplet' or 'don't triplet'—we could all get rich by betting 'don't triplet.' This, in fact, is the analogy the author of the Triplet system uses in describing the 'logic' behind his method.
"The error the author makes is in assuming that the "don't triplet" bet is just as strong after two of the three 'don't' results have already occurred, when all you're betting against is the occurrence of the third result.
"WRONG!
"The reason the 'don't triplet' bet would be so profitable if it were on the layout with an even money payout is precisely because there are three chances for the triplet to fail. Using a simple coin flip example, we all know that with an honest coin there is a 50/50 (even money) chance that heads will come up.
"For two consecutive heads results, however, the odds are 3 to 1 against it. This is easy to see if we consider all possible results of two flips:
1. H,H
2. H,T 3.T,H 4.T,T
"We only win once, but lose three times, with the four possible outcomes. For three consecutive heads to come up, the odds are 7 to 1 against it:
1. H,H,H
2. H,H,T
3. H,T,H
4. T,H,H
5. H,T,T
6. T,H,T
7. T,T,H
8. T,T,T
"Out of these eight possible outcomes of three consecutive flips, there are seven losses and one win, if we're betting on three consecutive heads.
"But, as soon as I stipulate that two consecutive heads have already occurred, the odds against the third occurrence are no longer 7 to 1. What I'm looking at is 'H, H,' where only that third result figures into the bet, and we're back to a 50/50 chance of it being either heads or tails. If I pulled out an honest quarter, and offered you an even money bet that I could flip three heads in a row, you'd be very smart to take the bet, since the odds against me doing it are 7 to 1. In fact, you could give me 6 to 1 odds and still make money on this bet in the long run. But if I said, 'Wait until I flip two consecutive heads, then I'll bet you that I can flip a third head,' you'd be foolish to give me anything other than even money, because it's back to being a 50/50 proposition. At a crap table, or roulette table, you are giving the house odds on that third bet, because unlike our coin flip example, the house has a 1.41% advantage over you on the pass line, and a 5.26% advantage over you on the even money bets with a double-0 wheel. The Triplet system does nothing to change the house edge.
"Any time you see a system that tells you to consider the likelihood or unlikelihood of occurrence of some result, based on results that have already occurred, don't waste your time or money with it. I call these 'overdue' systems, because the sellers often claim that when there has been a preponderance of reds, black is 'overdue.'
"The reason I said that this 'Triplet' system is slightly more valid if applied to blackjack than to other casino games is that computer simulations have shown that in blackjack, wins are slightly more likely to follow losses, and losses to follow wins, as explained in our discussion of 'situational' betting systems. Unlike dice or roulette, the cards do have 'memory.' That is, cards that have already been played are out of the game until the next shuffle.
"But, as also explained, you can't expect to get rich applying the 'Triplet' system to blackjack. The total change in your win/loss expectation based on previous wins or losses at a blackjack table is measurable in thousandths of a percent, not enough to overcome the house advantage."
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