Here's another question sent to me by a player:
What do you think of the "Triplet" system, which I recently purchased by mail order. The system is made for playing craps, but I think the theory behind it would be useful for blackjack also, or any other games of chance. The author even says you can use it for roulette, and describes how on the last page. The system costs $100, but I only had to send $25 to get it. I'm supposed to send the other $75 after I win it from the casinos. It seems to me the publisher is pretty confident that I'll win, since he sent me the complete system below wholesale.
My answer:
"You purchased four photocopied pages for $25. The total cost to 'manufacture' this system to the author/publisher/seller was realistically about 250. Add to this the cost of an envelope and a 370 postage stamp, and the seller's overhead expenses on this sale come to about 650. So, even though you were shrewd enough to buy this system 'below wholesale,' I don't think the seller is sweating that $75 you still owe him. I suspect most 'shrewd' purchasers of this system never send the remaining $75 owed for one simple reason: This system isn't worth the paper it's printed on. My heart goes out to the tree that died for this nonsense.
"I agree with you that the 'theory' behind this craps system would apply equally to all even money bets in any game of chance, assuming the theory was valid for the game of craps in the first place. But it's not. Ironically, it's slightly more valid for blackjack than it is for other casino games—but not valid enough to be profitable.
"To simplify the author's brainstorm, he is proposing that because it is unlikely to have three consecutive same results, you will make money if you wait until two consecutive same results have already occurred, then bet against the third occurrence. For example, if the pass line wins twice in a row, bet 'no pass' rather than pass. At roulette, if red comes up twice in a row, bet black, etc. The system also combines this ploy with a martingale double-up betting strategy to be applied when you are losing.
"At any given time in the past twenty years you would have been able to find dozens of craps, roulette, and blackjack systems on the mail order market espousing this same faulty theory. When I read your letter, and examined the 'Triplet' system you enclosed, I almost tossed it in the circular file as just more garbage. I wanted to write you a short personal note telling you the system was worthless, but you failed to include your address on your letter. Then, it struck me that this type of system is one of the most common types of phony baloney systems on the market that seem to be based on 'logic' So, let's debunk this theory once and for all.
"It makes sense to many people that it is unlikely (or, at least, less than a 50/50 chance) that three consecutive same results would occur.
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